bugfixes

db/init/002_rain_monitoring_views.sql

@@ -0,0 +1,156 @@
+-- Rain-model monitoring views (feature/prediction/calibration drift + pipeline freshness).
+-- Safe to re-run.
+
+CREATE OR REPLACE VIEW rain_feature_drift_daily AS
+WITH ws90_daily AS (
+  SELECT
+    time_bucket(INTERVAL '1 day', ts) AS day,
+    site,
+    count(*) AS ws90_rows,
+    avg(temperature_c) AS temp_mean,
+    avg(humidity) AS humidity_mean,
+    avg(wind_avg_m_s) AS wind_avg_mean,
+    avg(wind_max_m_s) AS wind_gust_mean
+  FROM observations_ws90
+  GROUP BY 1,2
+),
+baro_daily AS (
+  SELECT
+    time_bucket(INTERVAL '1 day', ts) AS day,
+    site,
+    count(*) AS baro_rows,
+    avg(pressure_hpa) AS pressure_mean
+  FROM observations_baro
+  GROUP BY 1,2
+),
+joined AS (
+  SELECT
+    w.day,
+    w.site,
+    w.ws90_rows,
+    b.baro_rows,
+    w.temp_mean,
+    w.humidity_mean,
+    w.wind_avg_mean,
+    w.wind_gust_mean,
+    b.pressure_mean
+  FROM ws90_daily w
+  LEFT JOIN baro_daily b
+    ON b.day = w.day
+   AND b.site = w.site
+),
+baseline AS (
+  SELECT
+    j1.day,
+    j1.site,
+    j1.ws90_rows,
+    j1.baro_rows,
+    j1.temp_mean,
+    j1.humidity_mean,
+    j1.wind_avg_mean,
+    j1.wind_gust_mean,
+    j1.pressure_mean,
+    avg(j2.temp_mean) AS temp_mean_30d,
+    stddev_samp(j2.temp_mean) AS temp_std_30d,
+    avg(j2.humidity_mean) AS humidity_mean_30d,
+    stddev_samp(j2.humidity_mean) AS humidity_std_30d,
+    avg(j2.wind_avg_mean) AS wind_avg_mean_30d,
+    stddev_samp(j2.wind_avg_mean) AS wind_avg_std_30d,
+    avg(j2.wind_gust_mean) AS wind_gust_mean_30d,
+    stddev_samp(j2.wind_gust_mean) AS wind_gust_std_30d,
+    avg(j2.pressure_mean) AS pressure_mean_30d,
+    stddev_samp(j2.pressure_mean) AS pressure_std_30d
+  FROM joined j1
+  LEFT JOIN joined j2
+    ON j2.site = j1.site
+   AND j2.day < j1.day
+   AND j2.day >= j1.day - INTERVAL '30 days'
+  GROUP BY
+    j1.day,
+    j1.site,
+    j1.ws90_rows,
+    j1.baro_rows,
+    j1.temp_mean,
+    j1.humidity_mean,
+    j1.wind_avg_mean,
+    j1.wind_gust_mean,
+    j1.pressure_mean
+)
+SELECT
+  day,
+  site,
+  ws90_rows,
+  baro_rows,
+  temp_mean,
+  humidity_mean,
+  wind_avg_mean,
+  wind_gust_mean,
+  pressure_mean,
+  temp_mean_30d,
+  humidity_mean_30d,
+  wind_avg_mean_30d,
+  wind_gust_mean_30d,
+  pressure_mean_30d,
+  CASE WHEN temp_std_30d > 0 THEN (temp_mean - temp_mean_30d) / temp_std_30d END AS temp_zscore_30d,
+  CASE WHEN humidity_std_30d > 0 THEN (humidity_mean - humidity_mean_30d) / humidity_std_30d END AS humidity_zscore_30d,
+  CASE WHEN wind_avg_std_30d > 0 THEN (wind_avg_mean - wind_avg_mean_30d) / wind_avg_std_30d END AS wind_avg_zscore_30d,
+  CASE WHEN wind_gust_std_30d > 0 THEN (wind_gust_mean - wind_gust_mean_30d) / wind_gust_std_30d END AS wind_gust_zscore_30d,
+  CASE WHEN pressure_std_30d > 0 THEN (pressure_mean - pressure_mean_30d) / pressure_std_30d END AS pressure_zscore_30d
+FROM baseline;
+
+
+CREATE OR REPLACE VIEW rain_prediction_drift_daily AS
+SELECT
+  time_bucket(INTERVAL '1 day', ts) AS day,
+  site,
+  model_name,
+  model_version,
+  count(*) AS prediction_rows,
+  avg(probability) AS probability_mean,
+  stddev_samp(probability) AS probability_stddev,
+  avg(CASE WHEN predict_rain THEN 1.0 ELSE 0.0 END) AS predicted_positive_rate,
+  avg(threshold) AS threshold_mean
+FROM predictions_rain_1h
+GROUP BY 1,2,3,4;
+
+
+CREATE OR REPLACE VIEW rain_calibration_drift_daily AS
+SELECT
+  time_bucket(INTERVAL '1 day', ts) AS day,
+  site,
+  model_name,
+  model_version,
+  count(*) FILTER (WHERE rain_next_1h_actual IS NOT NULL) AS evaluated_rows,
+  avg(probability) FILTER (WHERE rain_next_1h_actual IS NOT NULL) AS mean_probability,
+  avg(CASE WHEN rain_next_1h_actual THEN 1.0 ELSE 0.0 END) FILTER (WHERE rain_next_1h_actual IS NOT NULL) AS observed_positive_rate,
+  avg(power(probability - CASE WHEN rain_next_1h_actual THEN 1.0 ELSE 0.0 END, 2.0))
+    FILTER (WHERE rain_next_1h_actual IS NOT NULL) AS brier_score,
+  avg(
+    CASE
+      WHEN rain_next_1h_actual IS NULL THEN NULL
+      WHEN predict_rain = rain_next_1h_actual THEN 1.0
+      ELSE 0.0
+    END
+  ) AS decision_accuracy
+FROM predictions_rain_1h
+GROUP BY 1,2,3,4;
+
+
+CREATE OR REPLACE VIEW rain_pipeline_health AS
+WITH sites AS (
+  SELECT DISTINCT site FROM observations_ws90
+  UNION
+  SELECT DISTINCT site FROM observations_baro
+  UNION
+  SELECT DISTINCT site FROM forecast_openmeteo_hourly
+  UNION
+  SELECT DISTINCT site FROM predictions_rain_1h
+)
+SELECT
+  s.site,
+  (SELECT max(ts) FROM observations_ws90 w WHERE w.site = s.site) AS ws90_latest_ts,
+  (SELECT max(ts) FROM observations_baro b WHERE b.site = s.site) AS baro_latest_ts,
+  (SELECT max(ts) FROM forecast_openmeteo_hourly f WHERE f.site = s.site) AS forecast_latest_ts,
+  (SELECT max(generated_at) FROM predictions_rain_1h p WHERE p.site = s.site) AS prediction_generated_latest_ts,
+  (SELECT max(evaluated_at) FROM predictions_rain_1h p WHERE p.site = s.site) AS prediction_evaluated_latest_ts
+FROM sites s;