work on model training

cmd/ingestd/web/app.js

@@ -501,6 +501,40 @@ function buildRainProbabilitySeries(points) {
   return out;
 }
 
+function buildRainProbabilitySeriesFromPredictions(points) {
+  return points.map((p) => {
+    const t = new Date(p.ts).getTime();
+    if (Number.isNaN(t)) {
+      return { x: null, y: null };
+    }
+    if (p.probability === null || p.probability === undefined) {
+      return { x: t, y: null };
+    }
+    return {
+      x: t,
+      y: Math.round(Number(p.probability) * 1000) / 10,
+    };
+  });
+}
+
+function thresholdSeries(range, threshold) {
+  if (!range || !range.axisStart || !range.axisEnd || threshold === null || threshold === undefined) {
+    return [];
+  }
+  const y = Math.round(Number(threshold) * 1000) / 10;
+  return [
+    { x: range.axisStart.getTime(), y },
+    { x: range.axisEnd.getTime(), y },
+  ];
+}
+
+function predictionAgeMinutes(prediction) {
+  if (!prediction || !prediction.ts) return null;
+  const ts = new Date(prediction.ts).getTime();
+  if (Number.isNaN(ts)) return null;
+  return (Date.now() - ts) / (60 * 1000);
+}
+
 function updateWeatherIcons(latest, rainProb) {
   const sunEl = document.getElementById("live-icon-sun");
   const cloudEl = document.getElementById("live-icon-cloud");
@@ -693,10 +727,26 @@ function renderDashboard(data) {
   const obsFiltered = filterRange(obs, rangeStart, rangeEnd);
   const forecast = filterRange(forecastAll, rangeStart, rangeEnd);
   const forecastLine = extendForecastTo(forecast, rangeEnd);
+  const rainPredictions = filterRange(data.rain_predictions || [], rangeStart, rangeEnd);
+  const latestRainPrediction = data.latest_rain_prediction || null;
+  const latestPredictionAgeMin = predictionAgeMinutes(latestRainPrediction);
+  const modelPredictionFresh = latestPredictionAgeMin !== null && latestPredictionAgeMin <= 90;
   const lastPressureTrend = lastNonNull(obsFiltered, "pressure_trend_1h");
-  const rainProb = computeRainProbability(latest);
+  const modelRainProb = modelPredictionFresh && latestRainPrediction && latestRainPrediction.probability !== null && latestRainPrediction.probability !== undefined
+    ? {
+      prob: Number(latestRainPrediction.probability),
+      label: classifyRainProbability(Number(latestRainPrediction.probability)),
+      source: "model",
+    }
+    : null;
+  const heuristicRainProb = computeRainProbability(latest);
+  const rainProb = modelRainProb || heuristicRainProb;
   if (rainProb) {
-    updateText("live-rain-prob", `${Math.round(rainProb.prob * 100)}% (${rainProb.label})`);
+    const sourceLabel = rainProb.source === "model" ? "model" : "heuristic";
+    updateText("live-rain-prob", `${Math.round(rainProb.prob * 100)}% (${rainProb.label}, ${sourceLabel})`);
+  } else if (latestRainPrediction && latestRainPrediction.probability !== null && latestRainPrediction.probability !== undefined) {
+    const stalePct = Math.round(Number(latestRainPrediction.probability) * 100);
+    updateText("live-rain-prob", `${stalePct}% (stale model)`);
   } else {
     updateText("live-rain-prob", "--");
   }
@@ -901,13 +951,20 @@ function renderDashboard(data) {
     data: {
       datasets: [
         {
-          label: "predicted rain probability (%)",
-          data: buildRainProbabilitySeries(obsFiltered),
+          label: rainPredictions.length ? "model rain probability (%)" : "heuristic rain probability (%)",
+          data: rainPredictions.length ? buildRainProbabilitySeriesFromPredictions(rainPredictions) : buildRainProbabilitySeries(obsFiltered),
           borderColor: colors.rain,
           backgroundColor: "rgba(78, 168, 222, 0.18)",
           fill: true,
           yAxisID: "y",
         },
+        {
+          label: "decision threshold (%)",
+          data: thresholdSeries(range, latestRainPrediction ? latestRainPrediction.threshold : null),
+          borderColor: "#f4b942",
+          borderDash: [6, 4],
+          yAxisID: "y",
+        },
       ],
     },
     options: rainProbOptions,

cmd/ingestd/web/index.html

@@ -198,7 +198,7 @@
           </div>
           <div class="chart-card" data-chart="chart-rain-prob">
             <div class="chart-header">
-              <div class="chart-title">Predicted Rain Probability (Observed Inputs)</div>
+              <div class="chart-title">Predicted Rain Probability (Model)</div>
               <button class="chart-link" data-chart="chart-rain-prob" title="Copy chart link">Share</button>
             </div>
             <div class="chart-canvas">