bugfix wunderground reporting

docs/rain_prediction.md

@@ -47,6 +47,12 @@ Feature-set options:
 - `extended`: adds wind-direction encoding, lag/rolling stats, recent rain accumulation,
   and aligned forecast features from `forecast_openmeteo_hourly`.
 
+Model-family options (`train_rain_model.py`):
+- `logreg`: logistic regression baseline.
+- `hist_gb`: histogram gradient boosting (tree-based baseline).
+- `auto`: trains both `logreg` and `hist_gb`, picks the best validation model by
+  PR-AUC, then ROC-AUC, then F1.
+
 ## Usage
 ### 1) Apply schema update (existing DBs)
 `001_schema.sql` now includes `predictions_rain_1h`.
@@ -79,6 +85,7 @@ python scripts/train_rain_model.py \
   --val-ratio 0.15 \
   --min-precision 0.70 \
   --feature-set "baseline" \
+  --model-family "logreg" \
   --model-version "rain-logreg-v1" \
   --out "models/rain_model.pkl" \
   --report-out "models/rain_model_report.json" \
@@ -92,6 +99,7 @@ python scripts/train_rain_model.py \
   --start "2026-02-01T00:00:00Z" \
   --end "2026-03-03T23:55:00Z" \
   --feature-set "extended" \
+  --model-family "logreg" \
   --forecast-model "ecmwf" \
   --model-version "rain-logreg-v1-extended" \
   --out "models/rain_model_extended.pkl" \
@@ -99,6 +107,35 @@ python scripts/train_rain_model.py \
   --dataset-out "models/datasets/rain_dataset_{model_version}_{feature_set}.csv"
 ```
 
+### 3c) Train tree-based baseline (P1)
+```sh
+python scripts/train_rain_model.py \
+  --site "home" \
+  --start "2026-02-01T00:00:00Z" \
+  --end "2026-03-03T23:55:00Z" \
+  --feature-set "extended" \
+  --model-family "hist_gb" \
+  --forecast-model "ecmwf" \
+  --model-version "rain-hgb-v1-extended" \
+  --out "models/rain_model_hgb.pkl" \
+  --report-out "models/rain_model_report_hgb.json" \
+  --dataset-out "models/datasets/rain_dataset_{model_version}_{feature_set}.csv"
+```
+
+### 3d) Auto-compare logistic vs tree baseline
+```sh
+python scripts/train_rain_model.py \
+  --site "home" \
+  --start "2026-02-01T00:00:00Z" \
+  --end "2026-03-03T23:55:00Z" \
+  --feature-set "extended" \
+  --model-family "auto" \
+  --forecast-model "ecmwf" \
+  --model-version "rain-auto-v1-extended" \
+  --out "models/rain_model_auto.pkl" \
+  --report-out "models/rain_model_report_auto.json"
+```
+
 ### 4) Run inference and store prediction
 ```sh
 python scripts/predict_rain_model.py \